September 22, 2026
U.S. apartment landlords face more than $1.8 trillion in debt coming due over the next decade, with about $757 billion maturing between now and 2028, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. That is more than any other commercial real estate sector, per the Wall Street Journal.
The size of the number matters less than what is behind it: loans made at historic lows are now due for refinancing at roughly twice the rate.
How the market got here
Apartment mortgage rates fell to around 3 percent in 2020 and 2021, and multifamily became the preferred sector in commercial real estate while office, retail, hospitality and senior housing struggled through pandemic-driven disruption. Rents were rising at double-digit rates nationally, and new construction followed the demand, concentrated heavily in Sunbelt metros such as Austin, Phoenix, Denver and Atlanta.
Supply caught up to demand faster than rents did. Many of those markets are now absorbing more new units than population and job growth support, and landlords who financed at 2020 and 2021 rates are reaching maturity with rents that have not grown enough to offset today’s borrowing costs.
The numbers behind the maturity wall
Nearly $300 billion in multifamily loans mature in 2026, following a record $310 billion in 2025, the highest single-year total the Mortgage Bankers Association has tracked. Another $223 billion comes due in 2027.
The strain shows up across several measures. The delinquency rate for multifamily loans held in commercial mortgage-backed securities rose from 1 percent in October 2023 to 7.1 percent this year, the largest increase of any major property type, according to Morgan Stanley. About 3 percent of this year’s maturing loans that cannot be extended are now in some form of distress, the highest share in five years, per Trepp. Apartment values have fallen roughly 3.5 percent in the past month and sit more than 20 percent below their 2022 peak, according to Green Street.
Why lenders are less willing to extend
For several years, many lenders extended loan terms rather than force a sale, betting that rent growth would resume and rates would fall. That approach is now harder to sustain, and two factors are changing lender behavior independent of rates alone.
First, banks are carrying stronger balance sheets than they were several years ago, giving them more capacity to absorb multifamily risk directly rather than extend further. Second, rent growth forecasts have improved: CoStar now expects rents to rise 1.9 percent by year end, up from a prior forecast of 0.5 percent, which gives some lenders a reason to take a property back and capture the recovery themselves rather than continue extending the existing owner’s loan.
The result is a market where refinancing decisions increasingly turn on a specific property’s rent trajectory and a specific lender’s balance sheet, not on a uniform industry practice of extend and pretend.
What this means for valuation work
A loan maturing in this environment does not carry the same risk on every property. A well-located, well-leased asset in a supply-constrained submarket refinances on different terms than a comparable-looking property in an oversupplied Sunbelt market still absorbing recent deliveries.
Valuing multifamily property against this backdrop requires evaluating a property’s actual rent growth and occupancy trend against its specific submarket’s supply pipeline, not a national or metro-level average, along with the loan’s maturity date, its rate relative to prevailing terms, and whether refinancing requires new equity the current ownership can supply. For owners approaching a maturity date, an independent value opinion grounded in current comparable sales and local market conditions is the basis for deciding whether to refinance, recapitalize or sell.
Source: Rebecca Picciotto, “Apartment Landlords Have a $2 Trillion Debt Problem That Is Only Getting Worse,” The Wall Street Journal, September 21, 2026.
Let’s talk
We welcome the opportunity to discuss what these trends mean for your multifamily portfolio or a specific asset approaching refinancing.
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